Presently, it looks like we are in the 4th step up. One possible explanation for the aberrant SSI behavior is that since 1982, the SSI may undergo 5 steps up before rolling over into a visible bear market. Kinda missed that one by one year, but that’s close enough for government work. The emphasis is on theoretical.Īn interesting comment about the 36 year cycle is that 1965 minus 36 equals 1929. So for now, 2018 is a theoretical end point of the bull market that began in 1982. 2018 is a possibility for the ending of the bull market that began in 1982. 2000 was a significant event because it was the peak of euphoria in the market. How long can the rise continue in the SSI? 1982 to 2000 is 18 years. The SSI can lead an independent life from prices and this is a good example of that process. Both of these bear markets are simply blips in the SSI’s long term up since 1974. It shows 2 very significant bear markets since 2000. Now the price chart since 1974 tells an entirely different story. The SSI shows no ongoing or lengthy bear markets occurring since 1974, minor corrections yes, but no bear markets. It has been interrupted only by small corrections in the SSI. The chart of the SSI shows that since 1974, we have been in one very long continuous bull market.
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This period was a full fledged bear market, which was confirmed by the SSI. This period was marked by 3 price declines ending in late 1974.
The middle period of the chart where the SSI is going down was 1965 to 1974. This assumption was based on the fact that Japan lost 4 aircraft carriers in the battle of Midway and the US lost only 1 carrier (this happened 6 months after Pearl Harbor) and Japan’s ability to replace carriers could never keep up with the US factories. This single battle made Wall Street believe that the war in the Pacific against Japan was going to be won by the USA. Check the history of this battle if you aren’t familiar with it because it’s very interesting. 3rd step down ended in June 1942 with the WW II Battle of Midway (Midway Island June 7, 1942). The left edge of the above two charts shows the final bottom of the bear market that began in 1929. 1939 to present – Dow Jones Industrials.But first a little history on the indicator. The following section is devoted to my super secret indicator and what’s been happening lately with the indictor. Order the T Theory® Encyclopediafrom Paula at this link.
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